Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's peak temperature on 18 August 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, the primary source for settlement. The market currently shows 0% implied probability, suggesting traders expect no extreme heat threshold to be breached on that specific date.

August in Seoul typically peaks between 28–32°C, with occasional spikes above 33°C during heat waves. Historical data from the past decade shows that temperatures exceeding 35°C occur roughly once every two to three years in mid-August, whilst readings above 37°C remain rare events concentrated in late July or early August. The 0% probability reading indicates the market has priced in either a moderate temperature range or reflects uncertainty about which specific threshold brackets the question covers. Comparable August dates at Incheon show variability driven by monsoon patterns and Pacific high-pressure systems rather than consistent extremes.

Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasts from late July onwards, particularly models tracking the position of the North Pacific anticyclone and any tropical systems approaching the Korean peninsula. The East Asian summer monsoon's strength in early August will influence whether heat-dome conditions persist through mid-month. Real-time atmospheric pressure patterns and sea-surface temperatures in the Yellow Sea typically become clearer by early August, offering traders concrete data to reassess probabilities against the resolution brackets offered.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 18?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.