Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's highest temperature on 13 August 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, the primary source for any discrepancies with summary figures. August in Seoul typically peaks between 28–32°C, though heat waves can push readings into the mid-30s. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on the resolution date, meaning the market captures the full diurnal cycle up to that point.

Historical August temperature patterns at Incheon show considerable year-to-year variation. The past decade has recorded daily highs ranging from 26°C during cooler summers to 35°C during extreme heat events. The 2018 heat wave saw sustained temperatures above 33°C throughout mid-August, whilst 2020 remained more moderate at 28–30°C. This volatility reflects the influence of the Pacific high-pressure system and monsoon activity, both of which shift timing and intensity annually. Recent summers have trended warmer, with 2023 and 2024 registering above-average August temperatures across South Korea.

Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasts released in late July and early August, particularly from the Korea Meteorological Administration and international models tracking high-pressure positioning over East Asia. The North Pacific Oscillation and Western Pacific subtropical high will be critical drivers; an extended ridge typically correlates with sustained heat. Any tropical cyclone activity in the region during early-to-mid August could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, though such systems remain inherently unpredictable beyond two weeks. Real-time atmospheric data from mid-August will be the decisive factor.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

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Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.