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Pronóstico: Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage

How the prediction market is pricing "Pronóstico: Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? 74% Match Winner 68% Game 2 Winner 65% Game 1 Winner 62% Volume: $117K Liquidity: $897K Closes: 13 Aug 2026
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Pronóstico: Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
74% 26% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
74% 26% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?74%
Match Winner68%
Game 2 Winner65%
Game 1 Winner62%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?62%
Any Player Ultra Kill52%
Any Player Rampage52%
First Blood in Game 1?52%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks51%
Any Player Ultra Kill51%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
Ends in Daytime49%
O/U 2.5 Games48%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Xtreme Gaming (+1.5)41%
Any Player Rampage10%
Any Player Rampage4%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, pronóstico: dota 2: team spirit vs xtreme gaming (bo3) - the international group stage stands at 74% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 1 match between Team Spirit and Xtreme Gaming in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 13 at 1:00AM ET. This mar…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
and

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