Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City faces a sweltering mid-July day as traders assess the likelihood of the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport reaching specific thresholds on 16 July 2026. The market currently implies a 61% probability that the temperature will exceed the lower bound of the primary range, reflecting intense summer heat expectations typical for the region during this period. Historical data from the National Weather Service indicates that LaGuardia frequently experiences highs between 87°F and 93°F in mid-July, with 92–93°F emerging as the frontrunner outcome at 35% probability, while 87°F or below holds an 18% chance [1][2].

Traders should monitor real-time atmospheric conditions, particularly the smoky air quality and cloud cover reported for the area, which can suppress peak temperatures by limiting solar radiation [3]. The settlement depends entirely on Wunderground’s recorded maximum for KLGA, meaning any sudden shift in humidity or wind patterns could alter the final reading. With the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 16 July 2026, the market remains sensitive to hourly updates from local weather stations and regional forecasts that may signal a deviation from the expected 92–93°F range [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.