Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 12?

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Market context

New York City is currently enduring an intense heat wave that has already shattered multiple temperature records at LaGuardia Airport, with the station hitting 104°F on July 3, 2026, breaking a 1966 record by three degrees[3]. This unprecedented thermal event, which killed 29 people in neighbouring New Jersey, saw thermometers across a 500-mile East Coast corridor exceed readings that stood for over 150 years[3]. The crowd-implied probability of 0% for the market suggests traders believe today’s conditions will not match the peak intensity of the early July surge, despite the persistent heat wave keeping midnight temperatures at record highs of 94°F[1][4].

Historical data indicates that July highs in LaGuardia typically range between 73°F and 91°F, with the average high sitting well below the 104°F peak recorded just nine days ago[2]. The current record of 104°F stands as the primary benchmark, meaning any temperature below this threshold would resolve the market negatively, while the 0% probability implies a strong expectation that the heat will subside before July 12[3]. Traders should monitor the National Weather Service climatological reports for daily maximums, as the record high for July 11 is 87°F against a record of 98°F set in 1988, suggesting a potential cooling trend[8].

Key catalysts include the hourly weather forecast for Sunday, July 12, which predicts rain in the afternoon and a maximum temperature of only 28°C (approximately 82°F), significantly lower than the recent extremes[10]. The presence of light rain and partly cloudy conditions overnight further reduces the likelihood of a record-breaking spike, aligning with the current market sentiment that the peak of the heat wave has passed[10]. Traders must watch for any sudden shifts in the forecast before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on July 12, as the current trajectory points firmly away from the 104°F benchmark[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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