Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
72% | 28% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
72% | 28% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots | 72% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots | 72% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots | 69% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots | 65% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots | 59% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots on target | 56% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots | 55% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 52% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Facundo Medina: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gregor Kobel: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Denis Zakaria: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Nico Elvedi: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Remo Freuler: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Remo Freuler: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Gregor Kobel: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabian Rieder: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Granit Xhaka: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Leandro Paredes: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Cristian Romero: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Manuel Akanji: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Denis Zakaria: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Denis Zakaria: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Gregor Kobel: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Fabian Rieder: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Granit Xhaka: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Johan Manzambi: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 45% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots on target | 44% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots on target | 42% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots | 38% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots | 38% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots on target | 38% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots | 37% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots | 37% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ shots | 37% |
| Facundo Medina: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Denis Zakaria: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Manuel Akanji: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots on target | 34% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 34% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Gregor Kobel: 4+ saves | 30% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 28% |
| Facundo Medina: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots | 24% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 1+ shots | 24% |
| Nico Elvedi: 1+ shots | 23% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 16% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots | 15% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots | 15% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ shots on target | 15% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Denis Zakaria: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Granit Xhaka: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Cédric Itten: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Manuel Akanji: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Nico Elvedi: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Julián Álvarez: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Cédric Itten: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Breel Embolo: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Dan Ndoye: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Ruben Vargas: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Enzo Fernández: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Leandro Paredes: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Cédric Itten: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 72% chance of pronóstico: argentina vs. switzerland - player props. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Argentina and Switzerland, scheduled for July 11 at 9:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Argentina vs. Switzerland - Player Props. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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