Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the peak temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 10 August 2026, with settlement based on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The 2% implied probability suggests traders expect temperatures to remain below the threshold range in question, reflecting typical August conditions in New York City where highs commonly reach the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit.

Historical August data from LaGuardia shows peak temperatures cluster between 82–88°F, with extreme readings above 95°F occurring roughly once per decade. The 1936 heat wave produced readings exceeding 100°F across the region, whilst more recent decades have seen occasional spikes to 94–97°F during particularly intense heat domes. The current 2% probability implies the market is pricing for a notably elevated temperature scenario—likely in the 95°F+ range—which would require either an unseasonable heat dome or an unusual atmospheric pattern to materialise in early August.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service forecasts from late July onwards, as seasonal patterns and any developing high-pressure systems become clearer. El Niño or La Niña conditions heading into summer 2026 could influence whether Atlantic tropical systems or continental heat patterns dominate the Northeast. Historical precedent suggests that whilst August heat waves do occur, they remain sufficiently rare that the low probability reflects realistic climatological odds rather than market inefficiency.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.