Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
64% | 36% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
64% | 36% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| National Bank Open: Diana Shnaider vs Iga Swiatek Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 64% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Diana Shnaider vs Iga Swiatek Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Diana Shnaider vs Iga Swiatek Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Diana Shnaider vs Iga Swiatek Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Diana Shnaider vs Iga Swiatek Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 49% |
| National Bank Open: Diana Shnaider vs Iga Swiatek Match O/U 21.5 | 46% |
| National Bank Open: Diana Shnaider vs Iga Swiatek Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 44% |
| National Bank Open: Diana Shnaider vs Iga Swiatek Match O/U 22.5 | 42% |
| National Bank Open: Diana Shnaider vs Iga Swiatek Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 38% |
| National Bank Open: Diana Shnaider vs Iga Swiatek Set 1 Winner | 34% |
| National Bank Open: Diana Shnaider vs Iga Swiatek Match O/U 23.5 | 34% |
| National Bank Open: Diana Shnaider vs Iga Swiatek Set 2 Winner | 33% |
| National Bank Open: Diana Shnaider vs Iga Swiatek | 27% |
| National Bank Open: Diana Shnaider vs Iga Swiatek Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 23% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 64% probability to pronóstico: national bank open: diana shnaider vs iga swiatek. This market refers to the tennis match between Diana Shnaider and Iga Swiatek in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 11, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Diana Shn…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: National Bank Open: Diana Shnaider vs Iga Swiatek. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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