Pronóstico: Highest temperature in London on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market resolves on the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport on 11 August 2026, using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table as the primary source rather than summary figures. This specific measurement point and data hierarchy matters because airport stations often record differently from central London sites, and discrepancies between observation tables and day-high summaries can shift outcomes across temperature bands.

August temperatures in London have historically clustered between 20–26°C, with extremes rare but not unprecedented. The Met Office records show that since 1960, only three August days in London exceeded 30°C, with the highest reaching 32.9°C in August 1990. The current 0% probability on the highest range suggests traders are pricing in a typical summer day rather than an outlier event. Comparable August 11ths show considerable variation—the date itself has seen highs ranging from 17°C to 28°C across recent decades, indicating meaningful uncertainty that the market may not fully reflect.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasting updates from the Met Office and long-range models as summer 2026 approaches, particularly any signals about Atlantic weather patterns or high-pressure systems that could drive anomalous heat. The specific reliance on City Airport data means local microclimatic factors—airport heating effects, wind patterns from the Thames—warrant attention. Any significant climate or weather pattern announcements in the months preceding August could shift expectations, though historical volatility suggests the probability distribution warrants recalibration from its current extreme positioning.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in London on August 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.