Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Beijing on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 21 August 2026 will be measured at Capital International Airport Station using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, the authoritative source for settlement. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either incomplete pricing or extreme confidence in a specific outcome band that has not yet been identified by traders.

August represents peak summer in Beijing, with historical daily highs typically ranging between 28–33°C during this period. The city's climate is influenced by the East Asian summer monsoon, which can produce variable conditions year-to-year; the 2025 August average high was approximately 31°C, whilst 2024 saw similar patterns. Examining Weather Underground's historical Daily Observations for Beijing across the past five Augusts provides the most reliable baseline for assessing which temperature bracket is most probable, as this data source directly mirrors the settlement methodology rather than relying on summary forecasts.

Traders should monitor mid-August 2026 weather pattern forecasts beginning in late July, as these will carry meaningful predictive power for the 21st. Any significant heat dome or unusual atmospheric pressure system affecting northern China in the preceding week could shift outcomes materially. The absence of current probability assignment suggests the market may be awaiting either clarification on the specific temperature bands available for trading or initial price discovery once ranges are formally published.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Beijing on August 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.