Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| China Open, Qualification: Elvina Kalieva vs Han Shi Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Elvina Kalieva vs Han Shi Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Elvina Kalieva vs Han Shi Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Elvina Kalieva vs Han Shi Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Elvina Kalieva vs Han Shi | 95% |
| China Open, Qualification: Elvina Kalieva vs Han Shi Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 93% |
| China Open, Qualification: Elvina Kalieva vs Han Shi Set 2 Winner | 92% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| China Open, Qualification: Elvina Kalieva vs Han Shi Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| China Open, Qualification: Elvina Kalieva vs Han Shi Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| China Open, Qualification: Elvina Kalieva vs Han Shi Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| China Open, Qualification: Elvina Kalieva vs Han Shi Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| China Open, Qualification: Elvina Kalieva vs Han Shi Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| China Open, Qualification: Elvina Kalieva vs Han Shi Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| China Open, Qualification: Elvina Kalieva vs Han Shi Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| China Open, Qualification: Elvina Kalieva vs Han Shi Game Spread +/-2.5 | 50% |
| China Open, Qualification: Elvina Kalieva vs Han Shi Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 4% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of pronóstico: china open, qualification: elvina kalieva vs han shi. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Elvina Kalieva and Han Shi in the China Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market …
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: China Open, Qualification: Elvina Kalieva vs Han Shi. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade Pronóstico: China Open, Qualification: Elvina Kaliev… on Mundial 2026 Grupos
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →