Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs Pcific Esports (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs Pcific Esports (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs Pcific Esports (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-4.5) vs Pcific Esports (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Pcific Esports (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-7.5) vs Pcific Esports (+7.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-5.5) vs Pcific Esports (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-6.5) vs Pcific Esports (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-7.5) vs Pcific Esports (+7.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs Pcific Esports (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-4.5) vs Pcific Esports (+4.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Pcific Esports (-6.5) vs Gentle Mates (+6.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Pcific Esports (-7.5) vs Gentle Mates (+7.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Pcific Esports (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5) | 53% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Pcific Esports (-4.5) vs Gentle Mates (+4.5) | 53% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Pcific Esports (-5.5) vs Gentle Mates (+5.5) | 51% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-5.5) vs Pcific Esports (+5.5) | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Pcific Esports (-8.5) vs Gentle Mates (+8.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs Pcific Esports (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs Pcific Esports (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-4.5) vs Pcific Esports (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-5.5) vs Pcific Esports (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Pcific Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: PCFIC (-1.5) vs Gentle Mates (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-8.5) vs Pcific Esports (+8.5) | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of pronóstico: valorant: pcific esports vs gentle mates (bo3) - vct emea group alpha. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant match between Pcific Esports and Gentle Mates in the VCT EMEA Group Alpha, initially scheduled for July 16 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Valorant: Pcific Esports vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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