Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
73% | 27% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
73% | 27% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| IK Sirius | 73% |
| Draw | 17% |
| IF Brommapojkarna | 12% |
Market context
IK Sirius host IF Brommapojkarna in Allsvenskan at Studenternas IP in Uppsala, with kick-off set for 17:00 UTC and the market already pricing Sirius as a clear favourite. The 73% crowd-implied “YES” points to a line that is broadly consistent with Sirius’ stronger recent profile and home-field edge, rather than a coin-flip fixture. [1][6]
The historical read still matters because these sides have not been one-way traffic in every meeting. Sirius have generally held the better head-to-head record across recent seasons, including wins in the last two league clashes cited by preview data, but Brommapojkarna did take a 3-0 home win in April 2025, which is the main reminder that this matchup can swing if Sirius are short of their first-choice spine or if BP get an early foothold. Recent previews also point to Sirius arriving in better form, while Brommapojkarna have been more uneven away from home, so the current price is less about pure rivalry balance and more about recent trajectory. [2][3][17]
The key catalysts are the team news releases close to kick-off, especially any late changes to Sirius’ attacking options or Brommapojkarna’s defensive availability. If Sirius confirm the same core that has driven their recent winning run, the favourite case hardens; if they rotate heavily or lose a first-choice centre-back, the line can compress quickly. Traders should also watch for confirmation of start times and line-ups from match pages and preview outlets, as several listings already agree on the 17:00 UTC slot and suggest Sirius’ home strength is doing most of the work in the pricing. [1][3][5][10]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $56K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: IK Sirius vs. IF Brommapojkarna. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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