Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover | 0% |
| Completed Match | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to pronóstico: swedish open, qualification: roberto carballes baena vs carlos sanchez jover. This market refers to the tennis match between Roberto Carballes Baena and Carlos Sanchez Jover in the Swedish Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 12, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market wi…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Carlos Sanchez Jover. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Trade Pronóstico: Swedish Open, Qualification: Roberto Car… on Mundial 2026 Grupos
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