Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz is still trading well below its pre-crisis flow, so the market is asking whether ship calls can recover to IMF Portwatch’s **60-a-day** threshold before year-end. Reuters reported in April that traffic was running at less than 10% of normal, with only seven ships in the previous 24 hours versus about 140 in ordinary conditions, which shows how far the strait was from a qualifying print even after the ceasefire period.[14] That is why the current **56% YES** price reads as a modest recovery bet rather than a clean consensus on normalisation.[1][16]

The historical frame matters because this contract needs a *published* seven-day moving average at or above 60, not just a temporary jump in sailings. CNBC said on 8 July that traders saw only a 43% chance of normal traffic by 1 December and the earliest expected normalisation was 1 January 2027, while Polymarket was slightly firmer at 59% for 31 December.[1] Recent commentary has also highlighted how quickly odds can move on diplomatic or security headlines, including reports of a Strait management bill in Iran and earlier ceasefire-related spikes in implied probability.[3][2]

For traders, the key catalysts are any renewed ceasefire or shipping-security announcements, plus IMF Portwatch’s weekly prints, which are the only data that settle the market.[1][4] The path to a Yes likely depends on whether insurers, naval escorts and regional diplomacy are enough to bring more container, dry bulk, ro-ro, general cargo and tanker traffic back through the channel and keep it there long enough for the 7-day average to clear 60.[1][4] Without a sustained improvement in transit calls, a single headline is unlikely to be enough.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

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How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

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