Pronóstico: Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2028 Democratic presidential nomination race is already forming, with former Vice President Kamala Harris currently leading early polling, though the field remains fluid as contenders like Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, and Pete Buttigieg position themselves for a potential bid. Despite Harris’s early dominance, the market’s 1% probability for any single named individual reflects the reality that no candidate has yet secured a formal commitment or overwhelming momentum, and the nomination process is still wide open.

Historically, early primary polling in Democratic races has rarely translated into guaranteed nominees; in 2016, Hillary Clinton led early surveys but faced a fierce challenge from Bernie Sanders, while in 2020, Joe Biden was not the frontrunner until late in the cycle. Similarly, the 1% figure for any individual mirrors past cycles where the eventual nominee emerged only after months of intra-party competition, endorsements, and shifting voter preferences, making early certainty a statistical anomaly rather than a reliable predictor.

Traders should monitor key catalysts including formal announcement dates, campaign schedule releases, and early-state fundraising totals, particularly in New Hampshire and South Carolina, which often shape early momentum. Recent reporting from The Hill confirms Newsom’s emergence as a leading contender, while USA Today highlights that stronger general-election candidates like Andy Beshear and Josh Shapiro remain underappreciated in early polls, suggesting a potential line-up shift as the race progresses.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.