Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
55% | 45% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
55% | 45% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 55% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Match Winner | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FaZe (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Legacy (-3.5) vs FaZe (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Winner | 46% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FaZe (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) | 35% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Legacy (-3.5) vs FaZe (+3.5) | 35% |
| Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) | 27% |
| Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) | 26% |
Market context
Legacy and FaZe clash in the Esports World Cup upper bracket semifinal on 13 August, a best-of-three match that will determine progression toward the tournament's final stages. The fixture carries significant ranking implications, as both rosters have invested heavily in preparation for this Saudi-backed event, which has consolidated top-tier Counter-Strike talent across multiple regions.
FaZe enters as the historically stronger unit, with a roster featuring established names and consistent LAN placements throughout 2024 and early 2025. However, Legacy has demonstrated upward trajectory in recent months, particularly through regional qualifiers and smaller circuit events where they've posted wins against established mid-tier opposition. The 47% implied probability for Legacy reflects genuine uncertainty rather than dismissal—recent Counter-Strike meta shifts have favoured teams with cohesive mid-round execution over pure firepower, an area where Legacy has shown improvement. Head-to-head records between these squads are limited, with their last meaningful encounter occurring over six months ago under different roster configurations.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations through late July, as both organisations occasionally field substitute players for specific tournaments. Any late-stage lineup changes—particularly injury or visa complications affecting key riflers or in-game leaders—would shift the probability materially. The match's scheduling on 13 August at 1:00 PM ET places it outside peak European hours, potentially affecting viewership metrics but not competitive integrity. Delays beyond the seven-day window would trigger a 50-50 resolution, a tail risk worth pricing given tournament infrastructure dependencies.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FaZe (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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