Pronóstico: How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

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Market context

The Fed has **not cut rates at all in 2026 so far**, and the current market price of 85% for *yes* implies traders think one or more cuts still land before year-end. That sits against a backdrop of much more cautious official guidance: in June, the Fed held rates steady and its dot plot pointed to an end-2026 median of 3.8%, which implied at least one hike rather than cuts, while CNBC reported the committee had removed its prior outlook for a rate cut this year.[7][8]

Comparable forecasts are sharply split, which is why the implied probability is high but not extreme. Goldman Sachs has argued the Fed could pause before cutting in March and June 2026, i.e. two 25bp moves, whereas JPMorgan expects no cuts in 2026 at all; Morningstar says markets have tended to price in one or two cuts, with CME odds earlier this year centred on around 50bp of easing.[1][2][3] That range matters because this market settles on the exact count of 25bp reductions, so a single 50bp move would count as two cuts, and any late-year policy shift can still change the outcome materially.

The main catalysts are the remaining FOMC meetings, especially the September, October and December decision dates on the Fed calendar, plus any unexpected emergency action before 31 December.[17] Traders should watch incoming inflation and labour data, because recent coverage tied a swing towards higher-rate expectations to persistent inflation and oil-price pressure, with Reuters also noting that war-related energy shocks had pushed some economists to defer expected easing.[4][16] If the Fed’s communications keep pointing to no cuts, the market would need a clear turn in data or guidance to hold that 85% *yes* price into the autumn.[7][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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