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Pronóstico: What price will XRP hit in August?

"Pronóstico: What price will XRP hit in August?" — live football odds plus comparison across the four major prediction venues.

↓ 1.00 56% ↑ 1.20 32% ↑ 1.40 5% ↓ 0.80 4% Volume: $83K Liquidity: $345K Closes: 1 Sept 2026
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Pronóstico: What price will XRP hit in August?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Mundial 2026 Grupos) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
56% 44% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
56% 44% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
↓ 1.0056%
↑ 1.2032%
↑ 1.405%
↓ 0.804%
↑ 2.002%
↑ 1.802%
↑ 1.602%
↓ 0.602%
↑ 2.801%
↑ 2.601%
↑ 2.401%
↑ 2.201%
↓ 0.401%
↑ 3.000%
↓ 0.200%

Market context

XRP is trading far below the levels implied by the live market ladder, where the current crowd has priced **0%** for a yes outcome, so any move into the higher August brackets would need a sharp repricing rather than a routine drift. Recent forecast pieces are clustered much lower than the top of the board: one August call expects XRP to hold roughly between $1.00 and $1.18 and finish near $1.10, while another puts the more credible August band at about $1.05 to $1.25, with $1.20 to $1.25 described as the breakout zone.[2][1] That framing matters because it leaves the upper-priced outcomes dependent on a genuine break from the recent range, not just intramonth volatility.[5][7]

Comparable models and chart reads mostly point to a market that has been range-bound rather than trending. Coinpedia says XRP was trading around $1.06 and moving inside a descending channel, with support near $1.05 and a push above $1.11 needed to improve the short-term picture.[5] BeInCrypto also says buyers would need a three-day close above $1.22 to turn the setup more bullish.[7] That sits against more optimistic automated forecasts, including Changelly’s $1.18 to $1.38 August band and CoinCodex’s higher monthly view, but the spread itself is the point: there is no clear consensus that XRP is already on a path to the top end of the market’s range.[3][6]

For traders, the main catalysts are whether XRP can hold the $1.05 area, reclaim $1.11 to $1.22, and whether broader crypto risk appetite stays firm, because one recent note argues XRP has not traded independently of Bitcoin this year.[5][2] The next leg is therefore more likely to come from a decisive market-wide move than from XRP-specific news alone, unless there is a fresh catalyst such as an ETF development or a material shift in regulatory expectations, both of which are cited as triggers in the more bullish forecasts.[9][15] Without that, the path of least resistance remains sideways-to-firm rather than a clean run to the highest listed bracket.[8][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: What price will XRP hit in August?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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Related Topics

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