Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's weather on 18 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station, with resolution determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. August in Tokyo typically sees peak summer heat, with daily highs regularly exceeding 30°C during this period. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning the highest temperature recorded up to that point will determine the outcome.

Historical August temperatures at Haneda show considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, the highest daily temperatures in mid-August ranged from 32.1°C to 36.5°C, with an average around 33–34°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the market's upper temperature threshold to sit above typical August conditions, making resolution contingent on an unusually hot day. Recent summers have produced occasional extreme heat events; August 2023 saw Tokyo reach 36.5°C on the 18th itself, demonstrating that exceptional heat is plausible rather than unprecedented.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency's forecasts as mid-August 2026 approaches, particularly any alerts for heat waves or high-pressure systems over the Kanto region. El Niño or La Niña conditions in the preceding months could influence summer temperatures. The specific reliance on Haneda's Daily Observations table—rather than city-centre or alternative station readings—matters; airport stations sometimes record differently from urban locations due to surface characteristics and measurement protocols.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 18?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.