Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s highest temperature on 20 July 2026 will be recorded at Incheon International Airport, with the market currently pricing any outcome above 27°C at zero probability despite July being South Korea’s hottest month. Historical data shows Seoul’s typical July high sits around 28°C, with averages ranging from 25–30°C and occasional peaks nudging 30°C, while humidity often exceeds 80%[3][4]. The 0% YES probability for higher ranges appears misaligned with recent patterns: in late July 2025, temperatures reached 32–37°C across the country as the hottest summer in seven years returned, with the Korea Meteorological Administration forecasting sustained above-average heat through early August[2].

Traders should monitor daily Wunderground updates for Incheon Airport on 20 July, the official resolution source, and watch for KMA heat advisories or tropical night declarations that often precede record highs[2]. A key catalyst is the absence of significant rainfall forecast through 6 August 2025, which historically correlates with persistent extreme heat and higher daytime peaks[2]. Given the 43% average chance of rain in Seoul during July, a sudden shower could suppress temperatures, but the current dry trend and high humidity suggest conditions favour the frontrunner of 27°C rather than cooler outcomes[3]. The market’s 100% assignment to 27°C as the frontrunner reflects this baseline, yet the 2025 heatwave precedent warrants caution against dismissing higher ranges entirely[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.