Pronóstico: US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by 2026? (2 week pause)

Platform comparison

Market context

A 14-day US pause in direct military action against Iran has already become the key moving part in this market, because the contract only pays if that quiet stretch begins and runs without interruption before the end date. The crowd at 0% YES implies traders think the risk of another qualifying strike remains too high, or that any lull will not last long enough to satisfy the full two-week window.

Comparable US-Iran ceasefire bets have shown how quickly sentiment can swing on headlines, but also how often optimism fades once the fine print is applied. In April, prediction markets reacted sharply to reported ceasefire announcements and then re-priced lower when the underlying truce looked fragile, with one market described as a “temporary reprieve” rather than a durable settlement.[12][13] Earlier reporting also noted that some US-Iran ceasefire contracts were pushed around by sudden political announcements and by trading that looked unusually concentrated ahead of key news.[1][3]

The main catalysts are any fresh White House, Pentagon, or Iranian military statements, plus developments around the Strait of Hormuz and scheduled talks that could reduce or increase the odds of further strikes.[11][12] Traders should also watch for reporting that clarifies whether any action counts as a qualifying military strike under the market rules, since informal understandings, backchannel diplomacy, or a temporary de-escalation do not qualify.[19] In practice, the contract will only move if the market sees either a clean two-week gap in US action or a new incident that resets the clock.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by 2026? (2 week pause). Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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