Pronóstico: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The ceasefire between Israel and Iran is still the key reference point for traders because the market only needs one qualifying air or missile strike to break it before the end of the settlement window. The current **100% Yes** price implies the crowd thinks the truce is effectively locked in, but the live history of this conflict argues against treating any ceasefire as purely administrative: early ceasefires have previously been followed by immediate violations, disputed claims over who fired first, and retaliatory strikes that quickly reset expectations.[1][11][15]

Comparable episodes show why the line can move fast if either side reopens a direct channel of fire. In June, reporting described the parties as having pulled back after exchanging fire, but with Iran warning it could resume attacks if Israel widened operations elsewhere, while Israel stopped short of embracing the ceasefire language in full.[17][15] BBC and AP coverage of the most recent ceasefire also noted claims of post-deal violations, Israeli retaliation against a radar site near Tehran, and Iranian denials, which is the sort of ambiguity that matters for a market defined by *qualifying military action* rather than diplomatic wording.[1][11]

For catalysts, watch for public warnings from the Israeli prime minister’s office, the IRGC, and the White House, plus any linked strikes on Lebanon or other theatres that could spill into a direct Israel-Iran exchange.[1][2][17] The biggest risk events are not scheduled talks but surprise military announcements, especially if either side says it is responding to a breach or if Israel argues another front is separate while Iran treats it as part of the same conflict.[2][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.