Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s 7 August high will be settled on the **Tokyo Haneda Airport Station** reading in Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table, not the day-summary panel, so the key question is whether the station posts a typical early-August high or an outlier heat spike. JMA’s Tokyo-area daily records for early August 2026 already show substantial heat, with Haneda reaching **35.6°C on 1 August** and **33.0°C on 2 August**, while inland sites in the same prefecture have printed mid-to-high 30s, underlining how quickly the top end can move on a hot summer day.[1]

Against that backdrop, a **0% YES** price can be read as a market assuming either a range misalignment or a view that Haneda will not reach the highest bracket. That is aggressive for Tokyo in August: long-run seasonal guides put Tokyo’s average August high at about **31°C**, but also note that temperatures often exceed **30°C** and can climb into the **mid-30s** during peak summer weather.[4][7][10] Recent reporting on Japan’s 2026 heat has also highlighted repeated “cruelly hot” conditions across the country, which keeps upside risk alive if the Pacific High strengthens again.[15][18]

Traders should watch the **morning update cycle**, especially any late-shift in sea-breeze, cloud cover, or heat-advisory messaging that could cap Haneda’s peak before noon UTC. The market settles at **12:00 UTC**, so the decisive reading will be whatever Weather Underground has posted in the Daily Observations table by then; the resolution language is explicit that this table overrides the summary if they differ.[3] If Tokyo stays under persistent cloud or onshore flow, the low-probability bands remain live; if the city opens hot and clear, the probability of a higher range rises quickly.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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