Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s Sichuan Basin is entering its peak midsummer heatwave, with July 11, 2026, expected to see temperatures climbing well above the seasonal average. The market currently implies a 0% probability for any outcome, yet trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 32–34°C, with 34°C as the frontrunner at 27% and 35°C at 22% [2]. This divergence suggests the 0% figure may reflect a technical glitch or premature settlement assumption rather than genuine market disbelief in high temperatures.

Historical July climatology for Chengdu places average daily maxima near 30–32°C, but recent years show more frequent 35°C+ readings due to intensified humidity and monsoon influences in the basin [3]. While typical day temperatures range 30–35°C, extreme days can reach up to 38°C, comparable to Singapore or Kuala Lumpur in July [7]. The current probability distribution aligns with trader expectations of midsummer conditions, where humidity often caps extremes despite high solar input.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, the official resolution source, and watch for sudden shifts in ensemble model spreads as the day progresses [2]. A 10-day forecast from Yr indicates a maximum of 38°C with light rain showers possible, while Weather-Forecast.com projects a max of 34°C on Monday afternoon [4][5]. Any deviation from these ranges—especially a spike above 36°C—would significantly alter implied odds, given the tight ensemble spreads currently observed in global and regional models [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.