Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s peak on 17 August is shaping up as a warm but not exceptional late-summer day, with most current guidance clustering the afternoon high in the high 20s to low 30s Celsius. Forecasts now point to roughly 26–33°C, with some showers or cloud limiting solar heating rather than a clear, dry heat spike.[1][2][3]

That makes the 0% yes price look anchored to an outcome that would need a notable forecast miss. Comparable August patterns in Chengdu usually resolve near the middle of the quoted range when rain or overcast arrives early, but a brief clearing can still push the airport station a few degrees higher than headline city forecasts suggest.[1][2] For traders, the main watchpoints are any late model shifts on rainfall timing, the morning cloud cover over Shuangliu, and whether the airport station reports a quick warm-up after dawn before convective showers move in.[1][3]

The key dependency is the specific Wunderground “Daily Observations” entry for Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, not the broader day-high summary, so a single midday observation could decide the bracket if temperatures top out earlier than expected. In practical terms, the line is most sensitive to whether August 17 stays in a damp, cloudy regime or briefly opens enough for a reading at or above 30°C.[2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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FAQ

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