Pronóstico: Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

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Market context

Legislative elections to fill 450 seats in Russia’s State Duma are scheduled for 18–20 September 2026, marking the first parliamentary vote since the war in Ukraine began. The market asks which party will gain the most seats compared to pre-election levels, with United Russia currently holding 310 seats and a constitutional majority. Despite the 2% crowd-implied probability for the “YES” outcome (which appears to refer to a non-United Russia winner), historical precedent suggests ruling parties in Russia rarely lose significant ground; in 2021, United Russia secured 49.8% of the vote and 324 seats, and analysts expect them to retain dominance in 2026[1][3].

Traders should monitor the final party list composition, particularly the inclusion of war veterans and officials like Dmitry Medvedev, Sergei Lavrov, and Maryana Lysenko, which could bolster United Russia’s appeal among pro-war voters[3]. A key catalyst is the new constituency map adopted by the Central Election Commission in April 2025, which may alter single-mandate outcomes and affect seat gains for smaller parties like New People, the only party showing potential growth since 2021[1][5]. Additionally, watch for legal actions against regional LDPR and CPRF figures, such as the March 2026 detention of Alexey Boykov, which could weaken opposition challengers[5]. Any official announcement on voting in occupied Ukrainian territories—where 11 new constituencies were created—could also shift the seat distribution[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

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Do I need to KYC for this market?

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.