Pronóstico: World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

Platform comparison

Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup has already produced its first missed penalty in regular time, with Lionel Messi failing to convert against Austria just days ago, marking his third such miss across six tournaments [2]. This early incident sets a tangible baseline for a market where the crowd-implied probability of hitting the threshold sits at a mere 2%, suggesting traders view a high volume of missed spot-kicks as an outlier event despite the tournament’s ongoing nature.

Historically, missed penalties in World Cup regular time are rare compared to shootouts, where records like the four consecutive misses in the 2002 Spain versus Ireland clash dominate the narrative [1]. In previous tournaments, players such as Xabi Alonso and Claudio Vidal each missed only one penalty in regular time, reinforcing the statistical scarcity that justifies the low current probability [6]. The 1994 final remains the most famous missed penalty, yet such high-stakes errors in knockout regular time are anomalies rather than trends [4].

Traders must monitor injury updates and lineup changes for key strikers, as suspensions or fatigue could force less experienced players to take penalties, increasing the miss rate. Recent reports confirm Messi’s missed penalty against Austria, but the broader squad news for teams like Germany and Canada remains fluid as the tournament progresses [2]. With the settlement window closing in July 2026, any sudden shift in penalty takers due to injuries or tactical adjustments will be the primary catalyst moving the line [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.