Pronóstico: What price will Bitcoin hit June 22-28?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the final closing price of Bitcoin between 22 and 28 June 2026, which determines whether the market resolves to "Yes" if any Binance 1-minute candle reaches a specified high threshold[2]. As of 22 June 2026, Bitcoin traded at $65,034.16, marking a modest daily gain but a significant $36,000 drop from the previous year’s peak[1]. Historical data shows June has been volatile: in 2026, the price fell to $17,708 mid-month during a crypto winter, while October 2025 saw an all-time high of $126,198.07[1][7]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders expect the price to stay well below the strike level, consistent with recent downward momentum—Bitcoin is now at $60,909, down from $62,651 the day before[4].

Traders should monitor upcoming US macroeconomic announcements, particularly Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and inflation data, which directly influence crypto liquidity and risk appetite. A recent report from PHEMEX cites an economic model projecting Bitcoin could reach $444,000 by mid-2026 due to accelerating institutional adoption and shrinking tradable supply[6]. However, that same paper notes global M2 money supply may peak by mid-2026, potentially triggering a reversal[6]. Additionally, any regulatory news from the SEC regarding Bitcoin ETFs or crypto custody rules could act as a catalyst. With the settlement window ending 29 June 2026 at 04:00 UTC, the final resolution hinges on whether any 1-minute candle breaches the defined high during the specified window[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.