Pronóstico: Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s overnight low is likely to stay firmly in the summer range, which keeps the market’s current 3% “YES” price anchored to an unusual outcome rather than a normal July pattern. Recent July climatology for Hong Kong points to average lows near 80°F, or about 26.7°C, with daily lows typically sitting in the high 70s to low 80s Fahrenheit and only modest day-to-day variation.[1][13][17]

That history matters because the settlement source is the Hong Kong Observatory’s “Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)” for 31 July, so the trade is really about whether the minimum drops enough to land in an unexpectedly cooler temperature band once the final Daily Extract is published.[3] The latest forecasts still look warm and humid: AccuWeather shows July highs around 86° to 93°F and overnight lows around 79° to 82°F, while other forecast services are calling for lows close to 26°C to 27°C, which is consistent with a low-probability downside break into a colder range.[1][11][14]

For traders, the main catalyst is the observatory’s final daily extract rather than the daytime forecast, because settlement depends on the published absolute minimum and the market cannot resolve until that data is finalised.[3] The near-term watchlist is whether thunderstorms, cloud cover or a late-night rain band suppress the overnight minimum below forecast, and whether the Hong Kong Observatory keeps or extends its thunderstorm warning while updating the 9-day outlook and regional forecast products.[8][9][10][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.