Pronóstico: Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s **lowest temperature on 9 August** is being priced as a very warm overnight reading rather than anything close to a cool dawn minimum. The Hong Kong Observatory’s own 9-day forecast for the day before and the official weather bulletin both point to *mainly fine* conditions, *extremely hot* daytime weather, and only isolated showers or thunderstorms later, with a forecast range of **29–36C** and low rain probability.[5][11] Independent forecast pages for Hong Kong are also showing an overnight low around **84–84F** and a day that starts already in the upper 20s Celsius, which makes a sub-20C outcome look structurally implausible.[2][8][9]

The market’s **0% YES** implies traders see no realistic path to a qualifying minimum once the Hong Kong Observatory publishes the final daily extract, and the recent setup supports that view. August is climatologically Hong Kong’s hottest month, with average nighttime temperatures around **26–28C** and frequent rain, but the current synoptic picture is not a cool-rainy one; it is a hot, humid summer pattern with only limited shower risk.[13][14] The key catalyst is the Observatory’s final “Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)” entry for the date, since settlement depends on that published figure rather than any private forecast or live app reading.[18]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.