Pronóstico: Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s overnight low on 5 August will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s “Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)” for that date, with the market resolving only once the Daily Extract is published and any later revisions ignored. The crowd is already heavily anchored to **27°C**, and that lines up with the Observatory’s summer climatology: early August typically stays warm and humid, with the 1991–2020 daily normal for 5 August showing a mean minimum of **26.8°C** and mean temperature of **28.8°C**.[1][3]

Recent analogues point the same way. In August 2025, the Observatory’s minimum on 5 August was **24.0°C** during persistent rain, while 5 August 2020 fell to **24.9°C** under heavier rainfall, showing that an unusually cool reading usually needs meaningful rain-driven disruption rather than a routine summer night.[2][9] Against that backdrop, a 0% “YES” price for any alternative to 27°C is consistent with a market that expects a standard monsoon-season floor rather than a sharp deviation from normal.[1][3]

The main catalysts are the short-range weather updates from the Hong Kong Observatory: rainfall timing, thunderstorm warnings, and any typhoon signal changes that could keep cloud and showers over the territory into the overnight hours. If forecasts continue to show light winds, high humidity, and only isolated showers, the minimum is likely to stay near the climatological band rather than drift materially lower; traders should watch the final HKO daily extract for the settled figure, since that is the only source that counts for resolution.[1][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.