Pronóstico: Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong's lowest daily temperature on 17 August 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract climate data. The settlement window closes at midday on that date, though final resolution depends on the Observatory releasing the "Absolute Daily Min" figure, which typically appears within days of the observation period. August sits firmly within Hong Kong's summer monsoon season, when overnight lows rarely drop below 24–26°C even during the coolest hours before dawn.

Historical August data from the Hong Kong Observatory shows that absolute daily minima during this month cluster between 23–27°C across most years, with occasional dips to 22°C during particularly wet or cloudy nights when cloud cover suppresses radiative heating loss. The lowest August minimum on record across several decades sits around 20°C, an outlier tied to unusual atmospheric conditions. Current crowd probability of 0% suggests traders are pricing in confidence that the overnight low will fall within a higher temperature band—likely 25°C or above—reflecting typical late-summer conditions.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity in the weeks preceding mid-August, as storm systems can dramatically lower overnight temperatures through cloud cover and wind patterns. The Observatory publishes extended outlooks monthly; their July 2026 forecast will be the most relevant guide for August 17th conditions. Humidity levels and rainfall in the preceding days also influence nocturnal temperature floors, making real-time weather tracking essential as the settlement date approaches.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.