Pronóstico: Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on 11 August is typically set by the overnight minimum at the Observatory, and the current 0% yes pricing points to a market that is effectively treating a sub-typical cool read as very unlikely. The climatology is fairly stable: the Hong Kong Observatory’s 1991–2020 normal for 11 August shows a mean minimum of 26.7°C, with a mean temperature of 28.7°C, so anything materially below the high-20s would be an outlier rather than a routine outcome.[2] Recent daily weather pages also show how persistent the warmth has been, with overnight readings in August often starting around the high 20s Celsius rather than dipping far below it.[1][4]

For comparable cases, the most relevant guide is how Hong Kong usually behaves in late-summer humid conditions: lows tend to cluster close to the seasonal normal, while cloud, showers and wind mainly affect whether the floor lands at 28°C, 29°C or 30°C rather than forcing a sharp break lower.[2][9][11] A useful recent benchmark came on 11 August 2025, when the Observatory reported a minimum of 28.1°C between midnight and 9 a.m., showing that even on a wetter day the city can still stay warm overnight.[4] That makes the market’s current zero-probability stance on “yes” consistent with a view that the settled minimum will sit in the usual August band.

The main catalysts are the Observatory’s morning and final daily extract publications, because the market cannot resolve until the 11 August data has been finalised in the Hong Kong Observatory’s “Daily Extract”. The trading focus should stay on whether late showers, cloud cover or a weak pressure pattern suppress nocturnal cooling enough to keep the minimum at or above 28°C; the forecast and hourly readings are the key dependencies, not any single midday temperature. Extended forecasts and official hourly readings already point to another hot August day, with showers early and mostly cloudy conditions, which typically limit radiational cooling overnight rather than producing a dramatic temperature drop.[6][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.