Pronóstico: Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s **lowest temperature** on 10 August will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily extract, and the key question is whether overnight and early-morning conditions can produce a materially cooler minimum than recent hot, humid August norms. The Observatory’s 1981–2010 climate normals put 10 August at a mean minimum of **26.3°C**, with a mean temperature of **28.7°C**, which is consistent with a warm baseline even before any event-specific weather is considered.[2]

That makes the current **0% YES** crowd view easy to understand: a sub-20°C outcome would be highly unusual in mid-August, while even a low-20s reading would still require an unseasonably cool air mass and/or rain-cooled conditions. Recent August data also point to persistent heat rather than a sharp cooling trend; the Observatory’s 2025 monthly summary noted the month was dominated by outbreaks of thunderstorms and hot weather, yet the mean daily minimum still averaged **27.7°C**, above normal.[14] Comparable August records from the broader climate set likewise show minima clustering in the upper 20s Celsius, with very limited scope for a dramatic downside surprise.[2][7]

For traders, the main catalyst is the Observatory’s final published **Daily Extract** for 10 August, because this market cannot settle until that dataset is posted.[0] In practical terms, the line will move only if the morning observation cycle or any late-night/early-morning rain and cloud cover materially changes the day’s minimum; otherwise, forecasts that keep lows in the mid-to-high 20s leave little room for a YES outcome.[11][17] Watch for any official weather alerts, tropical-system effects, or a sharp downgrade in overnight temperatures from the Observatory’s forecast and regional readings.[6][20]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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FAQ

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