Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wuhan's August climate will determine whether the highest temperature on 11 August 2026 reaches into the upper ranges. The city experiences peak summer heat during this period, with historical August averages around 32–34°C, though daily highs frequently exceed 35°C. The resolution will depend on readings from Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station's Daily Observations table on Weather Underground, which captures granular temperature fluctuations throughout the day rather than summary figures.

Historical August data from Wuhan shows considerable variability year to year. Between 2015 and 2024, recorded highs on mid-August dates ranged from 30°C to 38°C, reflecting the influence of monsoon patterns and occasional high-pressure systems that can drive temperatures into the upper 30s. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool day or uncertainty about the exact threshold bands available in the market structure. Comparable August 11 observations from prior years provide the baseline: most fell between 33–36°C, with outlier years reaching 37°C or above.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts released by China's meteorological authority in the weeks preceding August 2026, as these typically signal whether regional heat patterns will favour above or below-average temperatures. Typhoon activity tracking matters significantly—tropical systems approaching the region can suppress temperatures, whilst high-pressure dominance intensifies heat. The specific temperature range brackets offered will be critical to assessing value, as the difference between a 35°C and 36°C threshold can shift probabilities substantially given Wuhan's typical August volatility.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.