Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Wellington on June 26?

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Market context

On 26 June 2026, Wellington International Airport will experience its winter solstice conditions, with historical data showing daily highs rarely exceeding 62°F (16.7°C) and typically hovering between 54°F and 57°F (12.2°C–13.9°C) during this month[1]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any outcome above 11°C aligns with recent market behaviour: the 25 June event resolved to 13°C with 100% certainty, while the 26 June market on Polymarket shows 98% confidence in 11°C as the frontrunner[2][3]. This suggests traders are pricing in a marginal cooling trend consistent with seasonal averages, where daily highs decrease by 3°F as June progresses[1].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from NIWA’s seasonal outlook, which notes cold snaps may become more frequent in late June and onshore airflows could suppress daytime temperatures in eastern regions like Wellington[5]. The immediate catalyst is the MetService forecast for today (26 June), which predicts a high of only 9°C with heavy rain and strong southwesterly winds at 80km/h[9][10]. Any deviation from this—such as a sudden northerly shift bringing warmer air—would be the primary line-mover, though current conditions strongly support the 11°C resolution. Watch Wunderground’s hourly data post-12:00 UTC for confirmation, as settlement hinges on the highest recorded temperature across all times on this day[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.