Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Wellington on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington is experiencing midwinter conditions with the city currently recording 15°C at the International Airport, while nearby readings show cloud cover and strong south-south-westerly winds gusting at 24 miles per hour[2]. The settlement window for this weather contract closes at noon UTC today, meaning the market is effectively pricing the final hourly maximum for 21 July 2026 based on real-time atmospheric data rather than future forecasts.

Historical July patterns in Wellington typically see maximums hovering between 10°C and 14°C, with the 12°C frontrunner in the market aligning precisely with the median winter peak observed over the past decade[1]. The current 0% probability assigned to outcomes below 7°C reflects the unseasonal warmth of today’s 15°C reading, which sits well above the seasonal average and suggests the day’s peak will likely settle in the 12–14°C band rather than the colder extremes.

Traders should monitor the final hour of Wunderground’s daily log for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, as the resolution source locks the highest recorded temperature for all times on this day[1]. With winds remaining strong and humidity at 72%, any sudden drop in temperature before the 12:00 UTC cutoff would be the primary catalyst shifting probability away from the 12°C frontrunner, though current conditions make such a drop unlikely[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Wellington on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.