Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Wellington on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington International Airport is experiencing its coldest month, with July averaging a high of just 12.7°C (54°F) and a low of 8.3°C (47°F) [1]. Historical records for mid-July in Wellington consistently show temperatures rarely exceeding 15°C, making any significant heat spike statistically anomalous for this period [2]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability aligns with these long-term climate norms, as the station has not recorded extreme highs during the winter solstice window in recent decades [6]. Comparable cases from July 2024 and July 2026 show similar cool, damp conditions with highs hovering near 13°C, reinforcing the expectation that the temperature will remain well below any threshold triggering a "YES" outcome [5][9].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the specific NZWN station, as the market resolves strictly on the highest recorded temperature for 13 July 2026 [7]. While the settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 13 July, the primary dependency is the absence of any unseasonal warm air intrusion from the east, which is meteorologically unlikely in mid-winter [1]. No specific announcements or injury news apply here, but sudden shifts in wind patterns or cloud cover could theoretically alter the daily maximum; however, current forecasts indicate partly sunny conditions with broken clouds and no heatwave indicators [2]. The resolution source remains fixed on Wunderground’s daily history, so any discrepancy between local reports and the official station data will not affect the outcome [7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Wellington on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.