Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Wellington on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington International Airport’s highest temperature on 9 August is normally a cool-season reading, with August averages around 12°C for the month and daily highs usually clustering near 12°C rather than pushing into the mid-teens. Historical Wellington August data also show a fairly tight band, with typical highs around 12–13°C and only occasional peaks above that, which is why a market sitting at 0% YES implies the current pricing is treating an above-average warm spike as very unlikely.[1][11][15][20]

Recent Airport history points the same way. Weather Underground’s monthly Wellington record shows early-August 2026 maxima mostly in the low-to-mid teens Celsius, including 12°C on 8 August after 11°C on 7 August and 10°C on 6 August, while the broader historic August record in Wellington is still well short of summer-level heat, with a monthly record high around 13°C in the sources provided.[8][1][12] That makes the key question not whether it will be mild, but whether a brief northerly, sunshine break, or downslope effect can lift the airport reading into the top end of the usual August range.

Traders should watch the live airport observations rather than the day summary, because the market settles off the highest figure in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table. The most important catalyst is any change in the local wind regime before the settlement window closes: Wellington can switch quickly between cloudy, cool southerlies and slightly warmer northerly flow, and even a modest warming trend could matter if the peak sits near the boundary between adjacent temperature bands. Weather Underground’s Wellington history page is the direct resolution source, while broader forecast services already indicate August highs generally stay around the mid-teens at most, reinforcing that the line is being asked to absorb only a narrow weather tail.[2][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Wellington on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.