Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Wellington on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s highest temperature on 18 August is likely to be set by a cool, showery winter pattern rather than anything near seasonal warmth. MetService’s extended forecast for Wellington on Tuesday 18 August shows 10°C/7°C with showers easing in the afternoon and southerlies, which points to a low ceiling for the day’s maximum and makes a much higher outcome unlikely.[12]

That sits neatly with Wellington’s normal August profile, where daytime highs are typically around 11°C to 13°C and cold southerly outbreaks can keep temperatures below average.[5][6] The recent early-August snow and wintry spells across the capital also underline how quickly the local setup can turn cold, wet and gusty in winter, even away from the hills.[4][15] In that context, a market price of 0% on a top-end temperature band is consistent with a day that looks capped around the low teens rather than the mid-teens or above.

The key catalysts are the final local forecast updates and any shift in wind direction or rainfall timing before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, because Wellington maxima often occur late morning or early afternoon. Traders should watch for any stronger-than-expected southerly surge, rain arriving earlier, or a brief clearing that could nudge the observed maximum up by a degree; otherwise, the main risk remains a subdued winter day close to the published forecast.[12][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Wellington on August 18?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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