Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Wellington on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s peak temperature on 11 August will be judged from Weather Underground’s Daily Observations for Wellington Intl Airport, and that matters because Wellington winters are usually tightly clustered rather than extreme. Long-run August normals sit around 12–14°C for the daytime high, with average lows near 9°C, so a result in the low teens is the centre of the distribution, not an outlier.[1][2][14][16]

That historical shape helps explain why the market’s 0% crowd-implied YES looks fragile if the intended band is narrow. Wellington’s August record high is well above the average, with published historical summaries showing occasional spikes into the mid-to-high teens, while recent August readings have mostly stayed in a cooler 10–13°C corridor.[10][12][17] By comparison, the current month so far has already produced highs from about 10°C to 16°C on the available Weather Underground monthly history, which keeps both a mild lift and a cooler reversion plausible.[7]

The main catalysts are the airport station’s day-of observations, especially any early-afternoon warming before the southerly sea breeze or cloud cover caps the day’s maximum. Traders should watch the Weather Underground daily page rather than summary widgets, because this market explicitly resolves on the highest figure in the Daily Observations table if there is any mismatch.[4][7] In practical terms, a late-morning sun break or a faster-than-expected northerly shift would push the reading towards the upper end of the August range, while rain, cloud and onshore wind would keep it anchored near the month’s usual low-teens profile.[1][2][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Wellington on August 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.