Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Wellington on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s highest temperature on 10 August is normally a low-teens reading rather than anything warm by southern-hemisphere standards. Long-run August data cluster around a **12°C** daytime high, with Wellington weather history for 9 August 2026 already showing a maximum of **12°C**, while recent August archives frequently land in the **11–13°C** band.[1][5][9] The market’s current **0% YES** implies an outcome above the lowest published range, but the historical base rate points to a modest ceiling unless an unusual warm spell develops.[5][9]

For comparable cases, August in Wellington is typically cool, windy and changeable, which tends to compress intraday highs rather than produce large spikes.[9][15][17] Weather Underground’s daily history page for Wellington shows recent August highs in the mid-to-upper 50s °F, equivalent to roughly **13–14°C**, with the daily observations table being the settlement source for the exact maximum.[3][13] That makes the most relevant reference point not the city’s broad monthly average, but whether on-market conditions allow the airport station to briefly touch the upper end of its usual August range.[13][19]

The key catalysts are the live observation sequence at Wellington Intl Airport and any short-lived shifts in wind direction, cloud cover or rain bands through the day, because those determine the highest hourly reading that will appear in the Daily Observations table.[13] Traders should watch for updates on Weather Underground as the station logs new entries, since the settlement depends on the highest recorded temperature rather than the summary high/low box.[13] If the morning begins cool and cloudy, a later clearing spell can still lift the day’s top reading into the low teens; if the breeze stays onshore and persistent, the ceiling usually remains constrained.[19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Wellington on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.