Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Wellington on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s highest temperature on 1 August at the airport is usually a cool-weather outcome, with August daily highs in the city typically around 12°C and long-run August maxima generally topping out in the mid-teens rather than anything near summer values.[2][12][14] Comparable August readings for Wellington show a tight range: average highs near 12°C, occasional warm days closer to 16–18°C in the broader record, and a historical monthly high of 18°C in August 2017, which underlines how unusual anything far above the low-to-mid teens would be.[12][14]

The market’s current 0% YES price implies traders see no realistic path to a very high daily maximum, and that fits the seasonality. A settlement above the market’s higher temperature bands would usually require an atypically warm airmass, weak southerlies and clear sunshine at Wellington Airport; otherwise, August cloud, wind and showery systems tend to cap the day’s top reading well below the upper single digits to low teens.[2][10][14] The main catalyst to watch is the near-term forecast for the airport itself, especially the forecast maximum for Friday and any late wind shift or frontal passage, because those are the factors most likely to move the realised top temperature before the 12:00 UTC settlement cut-off.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Wellington on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

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Which sports markets are available?

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How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.