Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Toronto on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the daily high temperature recorded at Toronto Pearson International Airport on 9 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data shows July highs at this station typically hover around 26°C (79°F), rarely dipping below 21°C or exceeding 32°C [1]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a specific temperature range suggests traders are betting the day will not reach that threshold, yet forecast models for July 2026 indicate daily highs could swing between 23°C and 34°C [2]. Given that 9 July 2026 is forecast to feature heavy rain and thundery showers with a maximum of 29°C [5][8], the 0% probability may be an overreaction to the precipitation, as rain often suppresses peak heat but does not eliminate warm days entirely.

Traders should monitor the official Wunderground resolution for the highest temperature recorded at any time on 9 July, as cloud cover and rain can cause significant variance from the daily forecast maximum [2]. A key catalyst is the timing of the heavy rain showers; if they arrive late afternoon, the morning could still see temperatures near 29°C, potentially validating ranges currently priced at 0% [5]. Recent weather network updates confirm rain will start within three hours of the current observation time, with a high of 26°C and low of 20°C expected for the day [6]. The dependency on the exact moment of the peak temperature is critical, as a brief warm spell before the rain could push the day into a higher range, making the 0% probability a risky contrarian position.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Toronto on July 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.