Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 30 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius by Wunderground. Current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific range suggests traders expect the reading to fall outside the offered brackets, yet historical data contradicts a cold outcome. June 2025 was Japan’s hottest month on record, with average temperatures 0.34°C above typical levels, and Tamba city hit 41.2°C just 560km southwest of Tokyo[2]. Haneda’s own June average high is 80°F (26.7°C), with daily highs in 2026 forecast between 75°F and 83°F (23.9°C–28.3°C)[3]. Tokyo has previously logged 10 consecutive days above 35°C, and record June temperatures reached 36.4°C in recent years[8][10].

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s real-time updates for Haneda on 30 June, as the market resolves only after the first data point for that date is published[1]. Key catalysts include Japan’s ongoing heatwave trends: 16 heatstroke fatalities occurred last week, with warnings issued across 33 prefectures[2]. The hot season at Haneda begins 29 June, meaning 30 June falls at the onset of peak summer heat[5]. No official weather agency announcements are expected before settlement, but local forecasts from JAL indicate a high of 28°C (82°F) for 30 June[9]. Given the 0% probability, the offered ranges likely exclude the 26°C–29°C band where historical and forecast data converge.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 30?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.