Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s summer heat is intensifying as July progresses, with daily highs climbing from 80°F to 86°F and rarely dipping below 71°F or exceeding 93°F[1]. Historical patterns show that the warmest day of July typically occurs around 31 July, reaching 29.8°C (85.6°F), while early July days are cooler, averaging near 20.9°C (69.7°F)[6]. Given that 7 July sits at the month’s start, current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES aligns with the expectation that peak temperatures will not yet have materialised, making a high-temperature resolution unlikely at this stage[1][6].

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s real-time updates for Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns could alter the day’s peak temperature[3]. AccuWeather’s July 2026 forecast for Haneda indicates daily highs ranging from 79°F to 89°F, with an average high of 87°F, suggesting that 7 July could still fall within the lower end of this range[4]. No major weather disruptions or official announcements are currently reported, but Visual Crossing’s data from late June shows a peak of 81.8°F on 30 June, reinforcing the trend that temperatures rise steadily through the month[5]. Watch for any unexpected rain events or humidity spikes that might suppress the day’s maximum reading.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.