Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the peak of Tokyo’s rainy season at Haneda Airport, where early July typically sees persistent cloud cover and high humidity suppressing daytime highs. Current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders believe the temperature will not reach the upper threshold of the market’s range, likely the 30°C+ bracket, despite July being the hottest month.

Historical patterns show daily highs in Tokyo during early July average 25–27°C (77–81°F), rarely exceeding 30°C unless a clear-sky heatwave breaks the tsuyu. Weather Spark notes highs increase from 80°F to 86°F (27–30°C) across July, but rarely fall below 71°F or exceed 93°F (34°C), indicating a narrow band where extreme highs are uncommon. Recent data from Visual Crossing confirms the highest temperature between 20 June and 5 July 2026 was 81.8°F (27.7°C) on 30 June, reinforcing the 0% probability as grounded in recent form.

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s hourly updates for Haneda Airport, particularly any sudden shift from rain to clear skies, which could trigger a rapid temperature spike. AccuWeather’s July 2026 forecast for Haneda projects highs between 79°–89°F (26–32°C), with an average high of 87°F (31°C), suggesting the threshold is plausible but not guaranteed. A key catalyst is the potential end of tsuyu, as Reddit’s Japan Travel Tips notes early July remains in rainy season with temps in low 30s only under rare conditions. Watch for any official meteorological announcement on heatwave warnings, which could move the line sharply if confirmed.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

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Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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