Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the daily high temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on 5 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific range suggests traders expect conditions to fall outside typical resolution bands, yet historical data frames this as premature. July in Tokyo consistently delivers highs between 25°C and 33°C, with Haneda Airport averaging 29°C during this month. Recent records show Japan hitting 41.2°C in Tamba City in late July 2025, while 2026’s July has already seen temperatures nearly 3°C above normal across the region, indicating a strong upward trend that contradicts the 0% sentiment[2][6].

Traders must monitor daily weather announcements from Wunderground and the National Weather Service, as sudden shifts in precipitation or wind could alter the peak temperature. The official forecast for Haneda Airport in July 2026 projects daily highs between 25°C and 33°C, with overnight lows from 20°C to 26°C, making a sub-25°C outcome unlikely unless extreme cloud cover or rain intervenes[3]. A key catalyst is the meteorological department’s warning that above-average temperatures will persist into August, suggesting the 5 July peak will align with this heatwave rather than dip unexpectedly[2]. No suspensions or injuries apply here, but the dependency on real-time sensor data from Wunderground remains critical for accurate resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.