Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo Haneda Airport is expected to be hot on 31 July, with the market’s resolution hinging on the single highest observed temperature rather than the daily average. Forecasts in hand point to a very warm afternoon: AccuWeather’s July outlook shows Tokyo’s daily highs in the upper 20s to high 30s Celsius across the month, while one local forecast published on 30 July put Tokyo’s high for 31 July at 36°C, with a low of 27°C[1][4]. That sort of setup leaves plenty of room for the day’s maximum to clear common summer thresholds, especially if sunshine arrives earlier than expected or if showers remain brief.

The historical frame also argues against treating 0% as a true impossibility. July in Tokyo typically runs hot, with average highs around 28–29°C, and late July is among the clearest parts of the month, with July 31 singled out as one of the more likely clearer days in Tokyo climatology[16][18]. Long-range and hourly forecasts available on 31 July also clustered around the low-to-mid 30s Celsius for the city, including readings around 84–96°F through the daytime, which is consistent with a materially warm airport maximum if cloud cover is limited[6][8]. By comparison, a settlement below the first few temperature bands would require an unusually cool, wet day for peak-summer Tokyo.

Traders should watch the morning and early afternoon forecast updates most closely, because convective rain or an earlier-than-expected thunderstorm line can cap the high quickly. The immediate catalyst is whether the 31 July Tokyo forecast holds its hot profile or is revised lower as the day develops; current guidance already shows heavy humidity and storm risk in some sources, including a 99% precipitation chance in one extended forecast[2]. For this market, the relevant dependency is the Haneda station reading itself, so airport-specific conditions around the middle of the day matter more than city averages.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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